Synthetic Control Method

Populism or Impeachment? Explaining the Brazilian Democratic Backsliding

What is Bolsonaro’s effect on Brazilian democratic backsliding? What if he was not elected? This chapter uses the synthetic control method to show that despite being a symptom and continuer of Brazilian democratic erosion, Bolsonaro is not the baseline of the episode. Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment has a previous and greater causal effect in undermining democratic institutions in the country, proving that when misused, impeachment can harm democracy.